On March 9, 2021 Bavarian Nordic A/S (OMX: BAVA, OTC: BVNRY) reported 2021 financial guidance (Press release, Bavarian Nordic, MAR 9, 2021, View Source [SID1234576339]).

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In 2021, Bavarian Nordic expects revenue between DKK 1,900 million and DKK 2,200 million and an EBITDA between DKK 100 million and DKK 250 million. Cash and cash equivalents at year-end are expected to be between DKK 300 million and DKK 500 million, excluding proceeds from offering.

Key assumptions

Revenue:

The low end of the revenue range reflects a scenario where a lockdown due to COVID-19 continues beyond Q1 in key markets like the US and Germany. The higher end of the revenue range reflects a scenario where a gradual reopening will happen in key markets during Q2 and where travel starts picking up again in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.
The smallpox and Ebola business are not expected to be impacted by COVID-19.
Research and development:

Research and development costs of approximately DKK 750 million are expected for 2021. The single largest project in 2021 is the RSV project for which manufacturing of phase 3 material as well as cost for the announced Human Challenge Trial is included. For the COVID-19 program up to approximately DKK 200 million are expected for a phase 2 trial and scale-up of manufacturing in preparation for a phase 3 trial. These costs are being capitalized and hence the research and development costs expensed through the P&L are expected to be approximately DKK 550 million.
Cash position:

Expected payment of approximately DKK 375 million milestones to GSK relating to the tech-transfer process for Rabipur/RabAvert and Encepur.
Working capital changes of approximately DKK 300 million, primarily driven by increased inventory levels of Encepur and Rabipur/RabAvert products.
Investments of approximately DKK 650 million with the vast majority of the investment linked directly to the acquired vaccines Rabipur/RabAvert and Encepur and relates to the upgrade of the bulk facility and capitalized tech-transfer costs.
Draw-down of existing EUR 30 million loan facility with the European Investment Bank.
Investment in COVID-19 program of up to approximately DKK 200 million (capitalized R&D costs)
Investments:

Approximately half of the total investments relates to the new facility. The design of the facility has been revised to achieve a higher degree of flexibility enabling parallel manufacturing of Bavarian Nordic developed products and allowing space for specific Encepur/Rabipur/RabAvert equipment. The re-design has increased the total expected investments related to the plant to approximately DKK 650 million from previously announced DKK 450 million and the re-build is expected to be finalized in 2022.
Capitalization of tech-transfer costs in 2021 is expected to reach approximately DKK 150-200 million.
Beyond 2022, and with current plans, annual investments are expected to decline to a level of DKK 50 – 100 million.
The outlook is based on the following currency exchange rate assumptions: DKK 6.10 per 1 USD and DKK 7.45 per 1 EUR.